Welcome to the Online Textbook for CIE42X0 Probabilistic Design!

CIE42X0 Probabilistic Design is a unit that is part of three B modules (CIEM4210, CIEM4220 and CIEM4230) offered in Q4 of the Hydraulic and Offshore Structures (HOS) track in the Civil Engineering MSc program at TU Delft. Each B Module has three units: B-1 Probabilistic Design (this unit), B-2, Computational Modeling and B-3 Design of the structures related to the modules mentioned above. Detailed information and updates about this unit can be found at unit website.

This book has three main parts:

• Probabilistic Design: chapters in this part contain an introduction to the course and various topics related to component and structural reliability that are not covered in the ADK book.

• Extreme Value Analysis: chapters in this part provide underlying theory to help understand the EVA procedure that is key for assessing hydraulic loads in HOS projects.

• Homework and Workshop assignments and solutions will be added throughout Q4. Note that if you follow a link before the file is released, it will take you to this page.

The EVA material from MUDE is also included here for you to be able to refer to it easily.

The Lecture Notes from a course in the old curriculum may be useful for some topics (e.g., Fault Trees), and general context.

CIE4130 Probabilistic Design Lecture Notes (PDF)

This book will be actively updated throughout the quarter; primarily with assignments and solutions, but also new technical content may be added, depending on questions and needs from students.